The United States is nearly five months away from a presidential election that continues to defy historical norms. President Joe Biden has the lowest level of support of any incumbent in modern history. His opponent, former President Donald Trump, is currently on trial in New York facing 34 felony counts.
Overview
Despite the unprecedented factors shaping the presidential election, as well as the volatility at home and abroad, the standing in the race between the two candidates has remained relatively static over the past six months, with Trump maintaining a narrow but consistent lead nationally. More importantly, in the pursuit of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, Trump also holds clear leads in four of the six battleground states that will likely determine the outcome in November, according to Cook Political Report.
In Congress, Republicans are favored to take control of the Senate. Democrats have all but lost West Virginia following Senator Joe Manchin’s decision not to seek reelection, and they are defending seven additional seats that are currently considered competitive by Cook Political Report. None of the Republican-held seats in the Senate that are up for reelection in 2024 are considered at risk. Control of the House is considered a toss-up, with Republicans defending 22 competitive seats and the Democrats defending 24 competitive seats.
The outcomes of these elections carry tremendous policy and regulatory implications. Emboldened by reelection, Biden would likely use executive action to expand on his first-term signature policy wins, particularly in areas like energy, financial services and healthcare. Executives should expect that in a second term, Biden and his team would double down on their efforts to expand the country’s infrastructure and green manufacturing capabilities, as laid out in the Inflation Reduction Act and other key policies.
Should Trump return to the White House, he would likely seek to dismantle many of Biden’s signature achievements while preserving protectionist policies such as tariffs on goods from China and efforts to further promote American manufacturing and “reshoring.” Trump would likely try to preserve key elements of his signature Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are scheduled to sunset in 2025. His administration would also likely move to deregulate several industries and advance efforts to eliminate civil service protections for some in the federal bureaucracy.
Despite what hangs in the balance, this is the first presidential election in contemporary American politics that is more squarely about the past than the future. As a result, each candidate is not campaigning on his proposals going forward but rather on relitigating his prior record. This focus will be the defining element of each campaign in the months leading up to election day.