In 2024, countries making up over 50% of global GDP will undergo decisive elections. The results will both reflect and impact an increasingly precarious geopolitical and economic environment.
The votes take place against a backdrop of heightened bloc rivalry, driven by competition between China and the West, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and increased posturing by non-aligned countries.
These have accelerated trends like “derisking” and “friendshoring” while complicating international cooperation on global issues like climate change and pandemic management. This lack of geopolitical coordination on international economic policy cushioning has also heightened the risk of any prospective shock to the precarious economic environment, especially in Global South countries with preexisting fiscal pressures.
We have highlighted for you below eight key elections to watch, the current state of play in these races, and the key factors to monitor in the run-up to the votes. The outcome of Taiwan's vote at the start of the year could set the tone for cross-strait and US-China relations for the following year, amplifying the role of China in the US' own November election. Elections in the EU and UK will meanwhile influence how Europe positions itself relative to this great-power competition, while also providing indications on the longevity of support to Ukraine. If Russia's elections offer limited indication of the government's popularity, a low turnout could add pressure on the Kremlin and its stalling invasion of Ukraine. The US elections are likely to impact global economics, politics and geopolitics.
Brunswick is available to support you through these elections, working with our offices on the ground all over the world to help you manage possible operational, reputational or regulatory risks emanating from the results.
Download the full report here.