Our thinking

China’s annual political gathering 2017

A review of the fifth and final session of the 12th National People’s Congress.

The fifth and final session of the 12th National People’s Congress concluded with no significant change in policy direction. While there were few surprises in this year’s gathering, the meetings gave a fresh view on the priorities of the administration and the implications for those operating in China.

This year’s meetings are the warm up act to the much more important 19th Party Congress at the end of this year when Xi Jinping will end his first five-year term as head of the Communist Party of China and when a number of the most senior members of the Party are expected to retire. The question is not if Xi Jinping stays for a second term (that’s a certainty), it is who will join him in the Politburo and the Standing Committee as this will influence the next five years and give early indication whether he may break with recent precedent and stay for a third term (2022-2027).

In this year’s report we look at how the Chinese authorities are seeking to balance growth, economic reform, and stability. Last year, the authorities spelled out a desire to achieve growth and reform—including drastically reducing overcapacity—while ensuring stability and enduring minimal pain. Achieving this simultaneously remains extremely challenging. This year they talked extensively about the reform agenda and its role in ensuring long-term growth, yet the importance of stability leading into the 19th Party Congress later this year is potentially even more important. “Stability is of overriding importance,” stressed Li Keqiang. Other key topics at this year’s sessions beyond ensuring reform and continued growth included a focus on job creation and poverty alleviation.

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