Auto Manufacturers Face a Difficult Road in 2025

Implications for the industry after the U.S. elections and what you can do now to prepare

In two months, America will choose a new president, presenting significant implications for auto manufacturers. Regardless of the outcome of the election, the road ahead will bring complex challenges that will force companies to make defining choices.

Automobile product cycles are longer than presidential terms, and manufacturers must model their production and sales forecasts for vastly different potential policies. With electrification and climate policy highly polarized, the durability and predictability of policy suffers.

Both parties are certain to keep the pressure on big companies, those with American roots and those with headquarters abroad. Industrial policy is here to stay, as are protectionism, trade fights and, likely, a fraught China bilateral relationship. And while tax and general regulatory policies will differ materially under a Trump or Harris administration, perhaps the biggest delta will be policy surrounding fleet electrification.

This won’t be an easy environment to navigate, and in many cases, it won’t be possible to escape the spotlight. What companies can do now is scenario-plan for either administration, evaluate the range of potential implications and map out a strategy, taking advantage of the opportunities and mitigating the risks.

Challenges

To describe the business environment for autos as complex understates the enormously tricky context manufacturers face. Consider some of the challenges confronting auto C-suites operating in the United States:

Questions for consideration

Have you thoroughly mapped the range of policy changes under the various outcome scenarios and assessed where your current strategic plan might need to be adjusted to meet a new political reality?
- Has that assessment been pressure-checked with your senior management and the board?
- What specifically is your plan for CEO engagement in response to whatever happens when the votes are tabulated after Election Day, through the transition process and governance after the new president takes office in January 2025?
How strong are your relationships with both sides of the aisle, at both the congressional level and in each presidential camp?
How balanced, expert and dispassionate is your external affairs team, and are they ready for the vagaries of the policy environment in 2025 and beyond?
As corporate engagement on social questions remains contentious, do you have a process in place to evaluate the issues that may arise and determine whether and how your company might choose to respond?
- Is that process active, appropriately staffed and balanced to reflect the range of anticipated employee, consumer and other stakeholder perspectives?
- Do you have a mechanism to discover early signals of issue activism against your company so that you are able to craft a thoughtful strategy to manage that activism before issues ripen into a crisis?
- Are there material conflicts between the interests of your full range of stakeholders that must be considered before certain issues emerge?

You can download a copy of this advice note here.

To continue the conversation

Mitch Bainwol
Senior Advisor, Washington, D.C.
[email protected]

Mitch brings to Brunswick a distinctive blend of high-level strategic experiences in government, politics and business. He served as Chief of Staff to two U.S. Senators and ran two successful Senate races and later was chief of staff to the RNC and Director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2002. Following his Senate service, Bainwol was chief executive officer for the premier automobile manufacturer trade group as that industry began its evolution to autonomy, electrification, connectivity and new models of access. Prior to joining Brunswick, he served as Ford Motor Company’s Chief Global Government Relations Officer from 2019 until retiring at the end of 2021.