Find your friends and manage your opponents One way to get going is to prepare a comprehensive map of all opinion formers and decision makers potentially involved in the decision, linking them to the sensitive issues that a bid might provoke. If possible, identify domestic interests that will be friendly to the deal and will be effective advocates if the Ministry of Commerce, NDRC or SAIC approach them for an opinion. Encourage them to go public with their views. As well as seeking to demonstrate the benefits of a merger to consumers, consider how the deal aligns with Chinese government initiatives, such as the current focus on environmental sustainability and the call for the building of a “harmonious society”. Try to assess whether other parts of the Chinese government (sectoral agencies, state-owned enterprises, and others) would support such a deal.
Anticipating those likely to oppose, of course, and devising an effective strategy to manage them is just as important as lining up allies. This requires in-depth research of the public positions taken by the media and think tanks and at conferences in the past, and better still some detailed research of opinion leaders.
Engage with the local media The Chinese business and financial press is increasingly capable and credible: engaging with local reporters, indeed, is a critical way of building a reputation in the market. Failing to do so can be costly. Our own conversations with journalists suggest that Coke was initially too conservative in the way it dealt with the local media, handing out press releases but engaging in little of the background briefing that would be considered normal and helpful in Europe or the US. Some reporters said that they could not get the information they needed to write a balanced story, especially early on. That allowed others – notably competitors briefing against the drinks giant – to grab the initiative. The impression gained ground that there was little public support – and not a little public opposition – to the Coke–Huiyuan deal.
The sense of frustration journalists feel when trying to get relevant information from companies is something we hear about a lot. International journalists have long said it inhibits them when trying to write positive commentary about Chinese companies; to hear the same cry from locals about multinational acquirers is a salutary lesson for those planning to bid for Chinese assets. Previously good media networks can get strangled in the legal anxieties over disclosure during an M&A, so even organizations with traditionally sound media contacts, as Coke had, can fast lose goodwill.
The Chinese local media is particularly thirsty for third-party commentary and connecting them with academics, analysts and other industry experts can pay off handsomely. Chinese journalists, like their counterparts in most other parts of the world, will give more credence to independent experts than to the principals in a takeover drama.
Do not, of course, neglect the international media. Nearly all stories with content related to China very quickly make their way into Chinese media: the views of the likes of the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Reuters, normally delivered through their increasingly popular Chinese language online editions, are all influential with decision makers, domestic media and opinion formers.
Understand the power of online commentary in China At the close of 2008, when the Coke transaction was officially made public, China had an estimated 300m internet users. Shortly after the news was announced SINA.com, a prominent online news provider, posted a special micro-website where it asked users to vote on whether they were in favor of the transaction. It attracted more than 500,000 hits, with a wave of negative responses in their online poll. This not only set the tone for the rest of the transaction but hampered efforts to reassert the consumer benefits.
This impact is increasingly common. Carlyle’s proposed acquisition of Xugong ran into an extremely aggressive and hard fought online media and blog campaign by one of Xugong’s competitors. Outside of M&A, companies such as Starbucks, which was pressured to close an outlet in the Forbidden City, understand the power of bloggers to disrupt their business objectives in China.
In summary M&A in China is as much a political as a judicial process. The opaqueness, newness and complexity of the regulatory regime mean it may appear unpredictable. But fast, up-front and clear communication to relevant opinion leaders and both local and international media can help convince the public, educate officials and overcome the distrust with which inbound investment is often unnecessarily viewed.